February 27 - Asteroids and the U.N.

A friend pointed out that an Earth orbit crossing asteroid had a high probability (for these sorts of things) of hitting us in about 30 years. Being just those kind of geeks, we started talking about what it would take to prevent it. The most notable problems being 1) whatever we do, we can't move it much and, 2) we don't know which way to move it. Since it is quite possible that it won't hit the Earth, if we nudge it right now, with what we know, we may actually cause it to hit the Earth. Actually there is a 3) and that is that there really isn't anything we can do right now, though we could begin working on something.

Then he pointed something out to me and I relaxed. It seems the U.N. is working on a protocol for dealing with this. Good. Matter settled. I can go back to my Post Toasties and Tivo'd Survivor... as if. What are they going to do? Expel hot air at it until it veers off? Ooh, Ooh, I know, they are going to issue sanctions. We've seen these do wonders elsewhere. Unfortunately, this is all too likely. Important people will talk about it, replaced every 4 to 8 years by more important people talking about it until it is effectively too late. It's a good thing the actual odds of impact are quite low and that this one would only wipe out some sea-front property in California.

By the way, what the heck is a "protocol"? As in, "the U.N. is working on a protocol..." Is this different than a plan? I suppose it is primarily composed of the seating arrangement for the negotiating table where they will determine who will pay for the mission to save us all, as if that was in any doubt. According to some news service or other, they will have the protocol ready by 2009. Oh, come on!?! Deep Impact and Armageddon came out how long ago? 8 Years? What is with these people?

The news completely fails to present information about science in a way that is useful. There are just too many examples, but in this case the most glaring example is when they describe what we can do about it. The nifty idea (far from a plan) the gearheads have for this asteroid (named Apophis) is to send a spacecraft to it and have it hover, burning fuel the whole time, next to the asteroid in the direction we want it to go. By doing this, the news reports say, the asteroid can be moved by 1 earth diameter if the spacecraft weighs 1 ton.

What they fail to mention is how long this will take. This is the case if they start about now. See, acceleration is like compounding interest where the principle grows more and more, like the old "one penny on the first day, two pennies on the second day, four pennies and so on" joke. The point is, the effect of the spacecraft is so small, and the reliance on accumulated velocity so great, that you have to start very early. Oh, and have a lot of fuel to burn over the next 30 years. As I said, it's an idea, not a plan, as of yet.

Oh well, at least we'll have a cool show, maybe. Apophis will swing by us once first before trying to hit us a few years later. Long before then, though, we will likely learn that it has, in fact, no chance of hitting us. Not before the U.N. calls us all deniers and has attempted to bleed the U.S. of every last cent they can paying for a then worthless mission, though.